Rising energy input costs + trade friction are suppressing A-share sentiment near-term. However, the AI/semiconductor (domestic substitution) theme remains structurally intact — institutional support buying on dips. Shanghai 3,900 is the key defense level. Ge Weidong Chaos Theory: Rising energy input costs + trade frictions weigh short-term. But AI/semis (domestic substitution) narrative intact — institutional buying on dips. Shanghai 3,900 is the key defend line.

HSI three straight weeks of declines — negative sentiment fully vented. Michael Burry (the "Big Short") publicly bullish on HK tech; Middle East funds eyeing return flows. 25,000 is the key support; extreme panic = staged entry opportunity. Feng Liu Contrarian View: 3 weeks of declines — bearish sentiment well-expressed. Michael Burry publicly called Hong Kong tech undervalued; ME capital reportedly eyeing return. 25,000 is critical support; extreme panic = phased entry opportunity.

US-EU trade deal approval is modest positive, but USTR new Section 301 targeting EU is a clear threat. ECB hawkish signals (energy inflation response) raise rates expectations → valuation headwind. Neutral-bearish.

Closed for Vernal Equinox. JPY strengthening (BOJ hawkish signals, hedging energy inflation import). Rising BOJ rate expectations = headwind for Nikkei exporters. Japan as energy importer facing outsized oil price shock.

Bear-flattening = the market signaling to the Fed it's "not hawkish enough." Inflation expectations rising while growth expectations lag. 10Y may continue probing 4.50%+; wait for peak confirmation before positioning long. Paul Tudor Jones Macro: Bear-flattening = market signaling Fed is "not hawkish enough." Inflation expectations rising but growth not following. 10Y could push toward 4.50%+; wait for peak confirmation before going long bonds.

DXY at ~99 is a key equilibrium. Oil shocks typically short-term bullish for USD (safe-haven) but medium-term bearish due to widening trade deficits. BOE/ECB/BOJ all signaling hawkishness → competing bulls capping DXY upside. CNH 6.89 signals Beijing is stabilizing the yuan. Soros Reflexivity: DXY near 99 is a balance point — oil shock short-term USD bullish (safe haven) but medium-term bearish (trade deficit). BOE/ECB/BOJ all hawkish = competing USD headwinds. CNH 6.89 = Beijing actively stabilizing.

BOJ hawkish response to energy-driven inflation strengthening JPY. As an energy importer, Japan benefits from oil price easing and BOJ has incentive to hike earlier. Long JPY vs unwinding carry trades is the current reversal direction.

Prices far above equilibrium supply-demand levels, but war premium is unmodelable. Hormuz 95% paralyzed — ~1/5 of global oil supply disrupted. This is a real supply shock. Pullbacks are structural buy opportunities (if war continues); $85-90 is key support. The short-term pullback triggered by Netanyahu's de-escalation rhetoric does NOT signal trend reversal. Fu Haitang Supply-Demand: Prices well above equilibrium but war premium is real and hard to model. Hormuz 95% shut = genuine supply shock to ~1/5 of world oil. Pullbacks are structural buy opportunities (if war drags). $85-90 key support. Netanyahu soft-talk-driven pullback ≠ trend reversal.

Global growth downgrade pressures copper (the economic thermometer). China demand uncertainty + manufacturing caution from war headwinds = copper under pressure. Jim Rogers: wait for global industrial activity recovery signal before re-entry.

Rising energy costs lift agricultural production costs → bullish for ags. But global demand recession risk partially offsets. Fu Haitang watches Northern Hemisphere planting season supply-demand data (critical window around April).

Inflation + rate headwinds compress high-multiple growth. Nasdaq at key support. But long-term AI thesis (Druck's #1 conviction) intact — this is just a valuation reset window. War-driven irrational selling = phased entry in NVDA/MSFT/META core positions.