The US-Iran conflict enters Day 38. Iran rejected the US 15-point ceasefire proposal; Iran's parliament speaker accused Washington of "diplomatic facade, covert invasion." US Special Forces continue reinforcing the region. Trump threatens to seize Kharg Island — Iran's main oil terminal. Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Israel on March 28; a drone was intercepted March 29. WTI crude at $101.80, Brent at $108. Gold hits record high at $4,503–$4,550. S&P 500 logs 5th consecutive weekly loss, approaching correction. Bitcoin at $66,500; Crypto Fear & Greed Index at "Extreme Fear."
⚡ War Day 38🚢 Hormuz Blockade Threat🛢️ WTI $101+ / Brent $108💛 Gold $4,500+📉 S&P 500 5 Consecutive Losses😨 Crypto Extreme Fear
Iran formally rejected the US 15-point ceasefire proposal; Iran's parliament speaker accused Washington of staging "fake diplomacy while secretly planning a ground invasion." Trump threatened to "completely obliterate" Iran's power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island — which handles 90% of Iran's oil exports — if the Strait of Hormuz isn't immediately reopened. The Pentagon is evaluating Special Operations ground mission options. Pakistan continues mediating indirect contacts, but Iran's FM denies any direct negotiations.
📎 来源: Business Standard, TradingEconomics, CapitalStreetFX
WTI crude broke the psychological $100 level, trading range $100.32–$103.37. Brent approaches $108. Iran struck two major Gulf aluminum plants, lifting aluminum prices. Strait of Hormuz disruptions affect oil, LNG, fertilizer, and semiconductor supply chains. Developing nations are fuel-rationing; Indonesian Rupiah hit 17,002/USD; Indian Rupee broke 95/USD for the first time ever. Trump extended the pause on strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure to April 6, in exchange for 20 oil tankers being allowed through Hormuz.
📎 Source: Business Standard, TradingEconomics, CapitalStreetFX
Spot gold rose to $4,503 in European trading, with some prices reaching $4,550.71, up 1.3–2.54% on the day. The ongoing US-Iran conflict combined with a weaker dollar makes gold the world's dominant safe haven. Gold is up 12%+ over the past 30 days. Institutional analysts raised targets to $4,700–$5,000, warning that a full Hormuz blockade could push gold above $5,000.
📎 来源: Zacks, AdvisorPerspectives, Business Standard
US equities logged a 5th straight weekly loss: DJIA -1.7%, S&P 500 -1.7%, Nasdaq -2%+. Asia-Pacific markets cratered: Nikkei -3%+, Korea Kospi -3%, Taiwan -2%, Hang Seng -1%. India's Nifty50 posted its worst fiscal year-end session at -2.14%. US Consumer Confidence fell to its lowest since December 2025. Surging gas prices and market instability are eroding economic confidence broadly. Cumulative S&P 500 losses now approach the 10% "technical correction" threshold.
📎 Source: Zacks, AdvisorPerspectives, Business Standard
A Reuters economist poll forecasts China's March manufacturing PMI at 50.1 (vs. 49.0 in February), signaling a return to expansion. PetroChina rose 3% on strong 2026 capex (220.8B yuan, +7.7% YoY). However, Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.3%; month-to-date losses: Shanghai -6.2%, Shenzhen -5.1%. RMB central parity rate weakened 82 pips to 6.9223/USD — PBOC is managing stability. China's independent "teapot" oil refineries in Shandong are under severe margin pressure from surging crude prices.
The European Commission approved the €1.5B EDIP work program to modernize European defense manufacturing and deepen cooperation with Ukraine — the latest signal of accelerating European "strategic autonomy." Direct catalyst for Rheinmetall, Saab, and other European defense giants. The EC also released €11M in humanitarian aid for Asian disaster preparedness.
Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Israel on March 28; a drone was intercepted March 29 — first Houthi attacks since the Gaza ceasefire in October 2025. On March 27, Iran struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, injuring 12 US troops and damaging two KC-135 refueling aircraft. An Israeli oil refinery also came under attack. Russia reportedly satellite-imaged the Saudi base before the strike — Ukrainian intelligence suspects coordination with Iran. A true multi-front war is taking shape.
📎 Source: AP, Fox News, Newsday
🌡️
第二部分 · 社交舆情温度计
📱 Reddit WSB
🔥 75°
能源看涨 · 战争期权博弈激烈
🐦 X / Twitter
😡 72°
战争疲倦 · 恐惧情绪主导
🇨🇳 雪球 / 微博
😰 58°
黄金多头热情 · A股悲观
💬 关键舆情摘录
WSB
"Trump把Kharg岛都要抢了？全买UCO和XOM，战争play all-in"
Polymarket
美伊停火概率维持28%以下；霍尔木兹全面封锁概率上升至19%
Crypto X
"BTC $65K被买入，极度恐惧=历史最佳入场信号，$100K年底仍是必达目标" — 多头坚守
